Lottery Math

Dont know why i did this but i noticed that Powerball is up to $94m for the jackpot and had to work out some of the lottery math.

So as you can see here are the odds on winning with fixed prizes for everything except for the jackpot which increases each week if no one wins.

So if you were to take $2000 and play 1,000 games at $2 each
- you would most likely win $138 based on all possible combinations for percentages under 1,000 games (however not guaranteed).

Interestingly the numbers get more interesting when you include the percentages for slim chance in the 4+1 and 5 balls in that the ROI doubles to $361 however most likely you wont win this kind of ROI at only 1,000 chances.

At the current jackpot the ROI on your $2000 spent is only $897 its not until the jackpot gets to $285m that you get an even return of $2,000 (though most likely you will lose money......)

To get to a $285m jackpot you would need to have no winner for 10 weeks and before that it's all gravy for the powerball folks with odds stacked way in their favor (though as the jackpot prize goes up people go crazy eg with the $450m jackpot a few months ago where it went up $80m in a single week) so its not a flat increase in the odds over 10 straight weeks.

Instagram

Seriously it has to be said, using Instagram is like shooting with a SLR and then going back to Polaroid...oooh look at me I'm a hipster....

WTF people?

Forget what the street says, buy Facebook NOW

I'm sure Facebook were planning to turn this feature on eventually anyway but because they have gotten off to such a rocky start listing on the NASDAQ the word has probably come down from upon high to start cranking up the revenues now.

Forget what the street says, buy Facebook NOW. I bet you they are going to want to hit it out of the park in this first Qtr with their "new" revenue streams.

I just noticed the following "subtle" analytics appear on the various LiveFanChat facebook pages I run this afternoon (we have about 20 of them for our various sites ), its currently not available on all of them (about 8 so far) and it takes about 30-60 mins for the first stats to appear after making a post but appear to update regularly after that as more people view the posts.

I'm sure they have a whole stack of these style "money making" plans set up and ready to roll and while we are all talking about how mobile ads might or might not make money in 5-10 years from now, for the next Qtr Facebook are going to be turning the screws on brands who use to shock the street into getting "used" to their sky high valuation.

Cheers,

Dean

VOYAGER HITS NEW REGION AT SOLAR SYSTEM EDGE

Too cool. (lol pun not intended)
- http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/news/new_region.html
Voyager tells us now that we're in a stagnation region in the outermost layer of the bubble around our solar system," said Ed Stone, Voyager project scientist at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. "Voyager is showing that what is outside is pushing back. We shouldn't have long to wait to find out...

Happy Friday Music - "Cold Chisel - When The War Is Over"

Happy Friday everyone. Some new tracks in the Mood Music box.

Listening to the Chisel making me feel all nostalgic :) -make sure to turn this one up LOUD.

Aereo going to court.....duh duh duhm (cant wait to see the outcome)

Good article in FastCompany today about the upcoming court case for Aereo

http://www.fastcompany.com/1838490/a-tv-platform-so-disruptive-everyones-suing-it
We chat with Chet Kanojia of Aereo, the new TV-where-and-when-you-want-it service that has a few legal troubles. Could Aereo finally disrupt the loathed cable bundle--and TV altogether?



Will be interesting to see how this shakes out and if Barry Dillers/IAC investment in the "legal fees" for this startup was worth it.

If they win this will be the biggest ruling in the TV industry since the Cablevision remote DVR ruling.

As a matter of interest i looked up to see if  TVCatchup (UK) and http://www.mytvr.com.au/ (Aus) were still running and it looks like they are.

Anyone want to predict which "cable channel" will be the first one to break ranks and deliver a service directly the the Aereo headend for inclusion in the paid subscription?


Cheers,
Dean

PBS: The West and the Rest

Just watched - http://www.pbs.org/wnet/civilization-west-and-rest

Was one of the best 2 hours I’ve seen on tv forever. Interesting to note at the end that it was funded by Peter Thiel amongst others.

NY Times review of the tv show here

Lots of lessons for founders in studying the rise and fall of empires.

Just noticed he has a book covering this in more detail, just ordered a copy from Amazon


 
Cheers,
Dean

Google using QR codes for 2 factor authentication

http://qrmedia.us/google-uses-qr-codes-for-login-key/

Google’s newest QR Code is the key to secure logins on public computers!

Dumb, its just a sms initiation QR code they are displaying.
Google could have easily just have achieved it by sending sms to a users mobile phone and needing you to reply to login, at least then they wouldn't have the issue of someone faking your handset DID number when sending the inbound sms.
Eg with their method i can fake your handset number and google would be none the wiser that i'm authorising my pc to log into your gmail account.
If google used outbound sms even if i cloned your handset the handset user would still receive a copy of the sms alerting you to a probably hack.

Chinese online ecommerce market

WOW

http://mashable.com/2012/05/20/ecommerce-china/
"China has an estimated 193 million online shoppers, Alibaba-owned Taobao, is estimated to account for half of all packages shipped in China".


Can this be real?

Fight it out online in the court of public opinion " Fair and Square "

lol love this use of YouTube - the internet..... the great leveler :)

Who needs a tv platform like Ellen has when you have YouTube and a video camera.

Branding Firm Appeals to Ellen in JC Penney Dustup

JC Penney's fair-and-square mantra doesn't extend to its vendors, according to a disgruntled branding firm.

Hudson & Broad, a New York-based visual merchandising and branding firm, is suing the retailer for $40 million, alleging "breach of contract and misappropriation of trade secrets." But, not content to let the disagreement play out in court, Hudson & Broad is appealing to JC Penney's famous spokeswoman, Ellen DeGeneres.

In a video posted on YouTube, Hudson & Broad President James Maharg asks for Ms. DeGeneres' support. (The video boasted 132 views as of this afternoon.)




So what do you think? how long before JC Penny comes to a confidential agreement?