Monday, February 29, 2016

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Sydney property crash?

Hmmm reviewing the weekends auction in Sydney.....crash what crash.

Somehow i get the feeling that people in Sydney are living pretty good lives with pretty solid income (well at least 500 of them are).

We're going to have to see one of two things happen (possibly three)

Either Australia finally starts to get the sniffles on the global cold (you think its bad in Moranbah, I can show you 20/50/100 similar locations in the USA that have been that way for a decade).

Basically unemployment starts to nip at the heels. Its one of those ones where someone you know got laid off, then you see a news article about XYZ shutting such and such a factory, then you start to think maybe we should save some money and not splurge, then your next door neighbour is washing their car in the driveway on a Monday morning and you think....time to sell. Possibly 2016/2017?


Someone in government decides to bring down the hammer. Will negative gearing do it - nope. Will APRA tightening do it...possibly (and the best way to manage it). But most likely it will be something like Jonathan Tepper etc - having a discussion to some politician who overreacts and does something stupid with capital gains but ONLY for property (which will cause equities to shoot up like we have the in the USA eg 20 times earnings being "new normal" - of course no politician will point the finger at themselves and understand this is what happens with 'global slush'). Possibly election time 2016?


Interest rates go back up to 6-7%. Considering you can currently get low 4's even though Australian banks are blood sucking profit making machines (it still blows my mind that the big 4 are worth 30% of the ASX - mush mush my little sheepies) they'll be the first ones in the world to move up with a moments notice.

However considering that you can get a 10 year mortgage for 1% in Japan and 3.5% jumbo 30 year fixed here in New York (hell yeh we fixed at that rate......easy to sleep well with this locked away - and I thought 4% fixed in 2013 was a bargain) this being said I'm not sure how long before we see rates push up in Australia given govt bonds over the last few years and the number of new countries going NIRP.

Though I can guarantee its coming....and when it does going to be lots of rushing for the door AND lots of bargains to be picked up as no way current incomes can support a return to 6-7% interest on the current multiples. Pretty much a given but 2018....2019...2020? who knows?

Friday, February 26, 2016

RIP. Tom Koltai

It is with very sad regret that i heard this morning that my friend and ex-boss Tom Koltai has passed away from a heart attack recently.

It is sad on a number of levels for a number of reasons how it all turned out in the end.

I know that his good friends will raise a glass in his name and quietly remember he was an arrogant, un-manageable, slob BUT he had a genuine heart of gold and always wanted the best for people.

He was always the smartest person in the room and although often unable to express it, really did want the very best for people.

He will be deeply missed by people who knew him well.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Innate genius?

Wow that the guy who invented the "Stock ticker tape" also invented "back to base wired home alarm system" that eventually became ADT.

Bit more complicated than that but sometimes you have to wonder about "innate genius"


Friday, February 12, 2016

Norwegian Sovereign Fund is "the bad guys"?

I've never thought of them being the bad guys before.....just the smart lucky recipients stashing away pennies for a rainy day, unlike the Saudis driving their Ferraris until they need an oil change.......

But maybe we should be re-positioning our view of their $80+ oil desires.

I don't think I've ever really noticed anything Ambrose Evens-Pritchard wrote before -

But seems like someone worth watching based on this article (or is it just aligned group I think he's smarter than he actually is?)

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Romeo and Juliet

I forgot how awesome the "audio sountrack" to Romeo and Juliet really is (the music soundtrack is good as well.....but the audio soundtrack is fantastic)

Monday, February 08, 2016

Fat stores

Wow the average person can walk a mile burning off just 10 grams of fat. With sufficient water, the average person can walk out their front door today and cover 500-1000 miles without needing to eat anything else........

That's just nuts !!
Fat is stored in the body in the form of triglyceride, which is comprised of three fatty acids attached to a molecule of glycerol. The fatty acids consist of chains of carbon atoms with hydrogen atoms attached. There is more stored energy (9 kcal) in a gram of fat than in an equal weight of carbohydrate (4 kcal/g). Typically, about 50,000 to 60,000 kcal of energy are stored as triglycerides in the entire mass of all of the adipocytes throughout the body. Obviously, there will be more energy stored in an obese person and less in an individual who has little body fat (Figure 1). Approximately 100 kcal of energy are expended per mile of walking, so most people have sufficient stores of triglyceride energy to walk 500-1,000 miles. Because this large amount of energy is stored in a relatively small mass of triglycerides, they provide a marvelous way for people to carry fuel as they move from place to place. In contrast, if all of this energy were stored as carbohydrate in glycogen, water molecules, which are very heavy, would be bound to the glycogen molecules, resulting in a total energy store weight of more than 100 pounds.

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Wednesday, February 03, 2016